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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."